Sunday
Sunday’s opening week looks to be steady overall but at the lower end. The comedy genre as a whole has had a lot of success recently but mainly when a leading star is part of the package; Partner, Welcome & Heyy Babby being such examples. Presence without a major star almost certainly means a far lesser initial, much like Dhamaal or Malawaal Weekly experienced.
The opening for Sunday as most reports confirmed was fairly poor, especially considering it had been 5 weeks since the release of Welcome/TZP and not one film since had opened strong. There were some reports of a rise in collections but overall it appears Sunday is not running houseful, but half full. The second week for such a scenario is crucial.
I’ve compared the opening week to Dhamaal, which is the best model to compare to. Also I have compared it to Jab We Met, Naqaab & Cash offline.
Week 1 Sunday vs Week 1 Dhamaal
Mumbai -10% means that Sunday is 10% LESS than Dhamaal in Week 1
Mumbai -10%
Ahmedabad -44%
Himmatnagar -80%
Baroda 0%
Pune 7%
Goa 0%
Nasik 0%
Delhi 2%
Noida -26%
Kaushambi 26%
Gurgaon -70%
Agra -86%
Aligarh -103%
Faridabad -132%
Guwahati -3%
Nagpur 3%
Raipur 15%
Indore -31%
Kolkatta 3%
Darjeeling -136%
Jaipur -15%
Kota -15%
Ujjain -56%
Bangalore 28%
Chennai -57%
Sunday leads in 10 centres
Dhamaal leads in 15 centres
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Sunday = 5.61Cr
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Dhamaal = 6.31Cr
This means that Sunday is 89% of Dhamaal’s total (5.61/6.31 = 89%)
Using my own Dhamaal Week 1 total of 12.25Cr (midpoint), the Sunday Week 1 = 89% * (12.25) = 10.9Cr
Note I will wait for a complete Mumbai figure since 6 centres are still to be reported. Compared with JWM I got 10.6Cr for Sunday’s opening, likewise vs. Naqaab it was 10.9Cr and vs. Cash it was 11.3Cr. Overall it is in the range of 10.5Cr – 11.5Cr (may increase a touch with better Mumbai number)
Sunday 1 Week Total = 10.5-11.5Cr(Week 1)
Verdict – Below par opening
Overall it is a below the mark opening considering there has not been much opposition around except for the twin success of Welcome & TZP. If Sunday remains steady, a 20Cr total looks likely which would just about be a below average performer. It appears people are waiting for Jodha Akbar’s imminent release !
Past Releases
Halla Bol
In its 3rd week, Halla Bol recorded not more than 0.3Cr – 0.4Cr (some un-reported Mumbai centres yet again). Overall it is exiting the scene with a total around 11.6Cr – 12.3Cr, a very poor showing overall.
Halla Bol 3 Week Total = 8.5-9.0Cr(Week 1) + 2.8-2.9Cr(Week 2) + 0.3Cr – 0.4Cr(Week 3) = 11.6Cr – 12.3Cr
Taare Zameen Par
Somewhat unexpectedly, TZP had a fairly junky fall BUT still it is way below industry average, such is the standard it has set in weeks gone by.
TZP Week 5 vs TZP Week 6
43% Mumbai means TZP fell by 43% in Mumbai in Week 6
Mumbai 43%
Baroda -183%
Bharuch 7%
Pune 34%
Goa 28%
Delhi 42%
Noida 45%
Kaushambi -47%
Gurgaon 63%
Agra 37%
Bareilly 4%
Faridabad 73%
Lucknow -64%
Nagpur 64%
Raipur 35%
Indore 9%
Jaipur 45%
Kota 52%
Kolkatta 55%
Darjeeling 7%
Bangalore 9%
Chennai 16%
Trending
Week 2 drop = 18%
Week 3 drop = 27%
Week 4 drop = 26%
Week 5 drop = 23%
Week 6 drop = 45%
Mumbai & Delhi fell a little steeper then in previous weeks and this is the main reason why the overall fall is steeper. Of course Sunday too may have added some competition in the past week. In Chennai, Bangalore & Kolkata, TZP has had an impressive run throughout.
Gross
The TZP Week 1 total for the above centres = 8.56Cr (ignoring Chennai, Bangalore, Jaipur, Kausambhi, Indore)
The TZP Week 6 total for the above centres = 1.60Cr (ignoring Chennai, Bangalore, Jaipur, Kausambhi, Indore)
This means that TZP’s Week 6 total is 19% of TZP’s Week 1 total (1.60/8.56 = 19%)
Using my own TZP Week 1 Total of 16.0-16.5Cr, the TZP Week 6 Total = 19% * (16.0-16.5) = 3.0-3.1Cr
TZP 6 Week Total = 16.0-16.5Cr(Week 1) + 13.1-13.5Cr(Week 2) + 9.5-9.8Cr(Week 3) + 7.0-7.3Cr(Week 4) + 5.4-5.6Cr(Week 5) + 3.0-3.1Cr(Week 6) = 53.9Cr – 55.6Cr
Verdict – Blockbuster
Despite a steeper fall, TZP is still on course to crack 60Cr and should be close before Jodha Akbar releases. Its business in big cities is the most impressive and if Sunday doesn’t hold up one would expect TZP to benefit the most.
Welcome
In it’s 6th week, Welcome fell significantly but the job is done. It’s recorded between 0.6Cr – 0.7Cr (I’ll wait for a better Mumbai number) and its overall total stands at an incredible 64.4Cr – 68.6Cr. Overall it is a SuperDuperHit.
Welcome 6 Week Total = 31.0-33.0Cr(Week 1) + 18.9-20.0Cr(Week 2) + 8.4-8.9Cr(Week 3) + 3.6-3.9Cr(Week 4) + 2.0-2.1Cr(Week 5) + 0.6-0.7Cr(Week 6) = 64.4 - 68.6Cr
Summary of the Week
Sunday had a relatively poor opening but overall had a below average week. TZP continues to sparkle even though it had a steeper fall then usual. Welcome & Halla Bol are coming to the end of their runs.
December 2007
Welcome : 64.4 - 68.6Cr (SuperDuperHit)
Taare Zameen Par : 53.9Cr – 55.6Cr (Blockbuster)
January 2008
Halla Bol : 11.6 – 12.3Cr (Flop)
Sunday : 10.5 – 11.5Cr (Below Average opening)
2007 – Significant Grosses (note 10Cr+ means 10Cr-20Cr bracket)
70Cr +
Om Shanti Om
60Cr+
Chak De! India, Welcome
50Cr+
Partner, Taare Zameen Par
40Cr+
Guru, Heyy Babby, Bhool Bhulaiyaa
30Cr+
Namastey London, Tara Rum Pum, Shootout At Lokhandwala, Jab We Met
20Cr+
Dhamaal
10Cr+
Honeymoon Travels Pvt Ltd, Bheja Fry, Life in a Metro, Cheeni Kum
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