JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – Black & White poor plus another solid week for JA

Note all numbers are from IndiaFm

Reporting Methodology

1) New films most of the time where possible will be benchmarked against other films ‘in the same range’. The gross used for the older films will be either one’s I have computed or a BOI gross or a gross from Joginder’s column
2) Films currently playing – I will always do some trending analysis. This is always against the ‘week before’
3) To compute subsequent week grosses I will always benchmark against ‘the first week’. Before it was always the preceding week, but Week 1 is always the best base because it gives maximum centres to use
4) Going forward I will show ONE example in FULL and show the results of the remaining scenarios

New Releases

Black & White

Subhash Ghai’s Black & White opened extremely slowly with most reports suggesting 15-25% occupancy. With the added plus of tax exception in Delhi, the film has grossed around 3Cr in India. In fact the numbers posted are very similar to that of Mithya not to look ago. Like Mithya, it probably suggests Black & White did fairly decently over the weekend but it would be unlikely for this to continue to much more. It will flop unless it can hold very steady in the coming week before the next big release of the year – Abbas-Mustan’s Race.

Past Releases

Jodha Akbar
Jodha Akbar enjoyed another very stable week.

[Please note that I have picked up on a slight issue in the model this past week, but the fortunate point is each film in the past has had the same benefit. My model assumes a film that releases in X cinema’s and will continue to run in those cinema’s through its run. In fact along its run, X falls as centres are dis-continued. So for the un-reported portion in later weeks I am always showing an incremental benefit to movies. In fact this is not a lot in the end, the centres that evaporate are usually low yielding one’s so by the end of its run, a film like JA will only see a benefit of around 0.5-1.0Cr, if it makes say 55Cr. It is 1-2% overall. The main point all movies in past have seen such a benefit but only noticed the impact with JA, since the numbers with JA have been reported very well]

JA Week 4 vs JA Week 3
44% Mumbai means JA fell by 44% in Mumbai in Week 4

Mumbai 44%
Ahmedabad 54%
Baroda -124%
Bharuch -23%
Himmatnagar 58%
Bhavnagar 59%
Jamnagar 18%
Pune -352%
Nasik 17%
Delhi -4%
Kaushambi -227%
Noida -30%
Aligarh -5%
Lucknow -2345%
Mathura 79%
Faridabad -439%
Indore -10%
Ujjain 34%
Nagpur 5%
Raipur 47%
Kolkatta -118%
Bangalore -1094%
Chennai -269%

Trending
Week 2 drop = 40%
Week 3 drop = 39%
Week 4 drop = 34%
Please ignore all centres which show a rise in collections. This is because week three was vastly under-reported in half a dozen or so centres. Otherwise Mumbai/Ahmedebad are still fairly stable. Delhi of course looks like a dodgy number this week, as does Bangalore. But looking at the numbers for all major centres from week one, week two and week four – it is very clear that JA has done splendidly well in major cities.

The JA Week 1 total for the above centres = 14.62Cr (Bangalore, Delhi and Ghaziabad)
The JA Week 4 total for the above centres = 3.62Cr (Bangalore, Delhi and Ghaziabad)

This means that JA’s Week 4 total is 25% of JA’s Week 1 total (3.62/14.62 = 25%)

Using my own JA Week 1 Total of 22.5-23.5Cr, the JA Week 4 Total = 25% * (22.5-23.5) = 5.5-5.8Cr

As I suggested above, like movies in past, this is an overestimation. However, I personally feel the lower end at 5.5Cr is a reasonable figure for JA’s 4th week.

Jodha Akbar 4 Week Total = 22.5-23.5Cr(Week 1) + 13.4-14.1Cr(Week 2) + 8.2-8.5Cr(Week 3) + 5.5-5.8Cr(Week 4) = 49.9 – 52.2Cr

Verdict – Hit

Jodha Akbar is pretty much in hit range now. In fact, though the opening was good but not extra-ordinary, it’s caught up very well in subsequent weeks. Interesting to note is, taking the higher end of my range for the opening of 23.5Cr and total so far of 52.2Cr – JA has already more than doubled its first week. Further proof is, no film barring TZP and CDI has made more than JA in the fourth week in 2007 or 2008. That absolutely suggests the film is a clear winner at the box office and as stated before if it gets to 58Cr (likely considering one more clear week) then it will get a superhit tag.

Mithya
Mithya fell around 50% to record between 0.15-0.20Lakhs. Its total is now 4.9-5.2Cr and the film is an average performer.

Taare Zameen Par
TZP fell around 50% to record between 0.20-0.25Lakhs. Its total is now 58.6-60.5Cr. It is now almost certainly ending its run.

Summary of the Week
Black & White had a poor opening week and has one last chance before Race releases to rack up some moolah. Jodha Akbar continues to impress further and is now a hit. Mithya/TZP are coming to the end of their runs.

December 2007
Welcome : 65.0 - 69.4Cr (SuperDuperHit) – 9 Week Total
Taare Zameen Par : 58.6Cr – 60.5Cr (Blockbuster)

January 2008
Halla Bol : 11.6 – 12.3Cr (Flop)
Sunday : 18.1 – 19.0Cr (Below Average)

February 2008
Mithya : 4.9 – 5.2Cr (Average)
Jodha Akbar : 49.9 – 52.2Cr (Hit range)

2007 – Significant Grosses (note 10Cr+ means 10Cr-20Cr bracket)

70Cr +
Om Shanti Om

60Cr+
Chak De! India, Welcome

50Cr+
Partner, Taare Zameen Par

40Cr+
Guru, Heyy Babby, Bhool Bhulaiyaa

30Cr+
Namastey London, Tara Rum Pum, Shootout At Lokhandwala, Jab We Met

20Cr+
Dhamaal

10Cr+
Honeymoon Travels Pvt Ltd, Bheja Fry, Life in a Metro, Cheeni Kum