JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – JA has another steady week, B&W steady at lower end…

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Note all numbers are from IndiaFm

Reporting Methodology

1) New films most of the time where possible will be benchmarked against other films ‘in the same range’. The gross used for the older films will be either one’s I have computed or a BOI gross or a gross from Joginder’s column
2) Films currently playing – I will always do some trending analysis. This is always against the ‘week before’
3) To compute subsequent week grosses I will always benchmark against ‘the first week’. Before it was always the preceding week, but Week 1 is always the best base because it gives maximum centres to use
4) Going forward I will show ONE example in FULL and show the results of the remaining scenarios

New Releases

There were no notable new releases in the past week.

Past Releases

Black & White

Black & White stabalised at the lower end but due to very insignificant week one haul, the second week fall doesn’t count for much in the end. It fell approximately 50% across India to record collections in the region of 1.5-1.6Cr taking its total to 4.5-4.8Cr. The film is a flop.

Jodha Akbar

Jodha Akbar continues its rock steady run for another week. For the fourth week in a row it has shown extremely solid trending. Almost certainly it will get its first most significant fall this coming week due to the competition provided by Race.

JA Week 5 vs JA Week 4
38% Mumbai means JA fell by 38% in Mumbai in Week 5

Mumbai 38%
Ahmedabad -3%
Baroda 74%
Bharuch 75%
Himmatnagar -46%
Jamnagar 17%
Pune 91%
Nasik 92%
Delhi 52%
Ghaziabad 62%
Kaushambi 67%
Noida 74%
Aligarh 7%
Bareilly -10%
Lucknow 95%
Meerut 82%
Faridabad 93%
Indore 84%
Ujjain -9%
Nagpur 57%
Raipur 15%
Kolkatta 73%
Bangalore 93%
Chennai 89%

Trending
Week 2 drop = 40%
Week 3 drop = 39%
Week 4 drop = 34%
Week 5 drop = 35%
First note that I have ignored any centre that has fallen by more than 65% because it is likely to be under-reported. Key examples are Bangalore, Kolkatta and Noida and many more.
Mumbai is incomplete but even at 38% fall it is showing strength. Ahmedabad showed an increase in collections & Delhi’s fall is actually not 52%, it more likely to be around 20% since week four was a dodgy number. Overall I have calculated that the all-India fall is probably around 35%.

The JA Week 1 total for the above centres = 9.67Cr (ignoring any centre that has fallen by more than 65%)
The JA Week 5 total for the above centres = 1.56Cr (ignoring any centre that has fallen by more than 65%)

This means that JA’s Week 5 total is 16% of JA’s Week 1 total (1.56/9.67 = 16%)

Using my own JA Week 1 Total of 22.5-23.5Cr, the JA Week 5 Total = 16% * (22.5-23.5) = 3.6-3.8Cr

Jodha Akbar 5 Week Total = 22.5-23.5Cr(Week 1) + 13.4-14.1Cr(Week 2) + 8.2-8.5Cr(Week 3) + 5.5-5.8Cr(Week 4) + 3.6-3.8Cr(Week 5) = 53.5 – 56.0Cr

Verdict – Hit

Jodha Akbar is a clear hit for sure. The trending has been rock steady for four consecutive weeks. It will almost certainly see a big drop in the coming week, but may have a chance to pick up again depending on how Race is received from the audience. By me Jodha Akbar probably still has an outside chance of reaching 60Cr at the higher end. If it passes 58Cr comfortably, then it will earn a superhit grade. The film despite a steady opening is now on a super run since the first week. It’s remained steadier than many of the biggies from last couple of years.

Summary of the week
Jodha Akbar continues to be the number one choice for the fifth consecutive week. Black & White had a steady week amounting to very little. All eyes are on Race, the year’s second big release so far.