B.O. update: 'JA' starts slow, picks up, optimism prevails: Taran Adarsh

http://indiafm.com/trade/boxoffice_update/index.html

- By Taran Adarsh, February 16, 2008 - 08:44 IST
The much-awaited historical JODHAA AKBAR opened to a mixed response on Friday. The film started in the range of 40% + in the morning shows, but shot to 60% - 70% in the noon shows, with the collections improving further [80% - 90%] during the evening shows. This was the trend at multiplexes and also at bigger centres. At smaller centres, however, the collections were in the range of 20% - 30%. Meanwhile, the multiplexes are expected to start screening from Saturday onwards.

The silver lining is, the audience feedback is extremely positive, the overall reviews are excellent and the business is expected to consolidate on Saturday and Sunday… Meanwhile, the film started with a bang in U.K., with the film collecting an impressive £ 57,427 in its paid previews on Thursday night

‘Jodhaa Akbar’ gets lukewarm response in Mumbai

Mumbai, Feb 15 (IANS) Director Ashutosh Gowariker’s much-awaited epic drama “Jodhaa Akbar” opened to a lukewarm response at the box office here Friday. Despite the media hype and large-scale promos, the initial box-office collections in Mumbai stood between 75 percent and 80 percent - not a handsome percentage for a film made on a whopping Rs.400 million budget and starring Hrithik Roshan and Aishwarya Rai.

Set in the 16th century, the epic love story explores a marriage alliance between two cultures and religions for political gain. Gowariker has tried to portray this political alliance as a romantic tale.

Younger audiences reacted unfavourably to the movie, primarily because it was a historical and many felt Akbar’s role did not suit Hrithik.

Vinita, a college student, said she couldn’t reconcile to Hrithik playing Emperor Akbar, at least at this stage of his career.

The usually bankable A.R. Rehman’s music also proved to be a letdown as none of the songs will stay with the audience, unlike some of his memorable tunes in “Bombay” or “Lagaan”, said trade analyst Amod Mehra.

The fact that “Jodhaa Akbar” has not been released at many city multiplexes, except the PVR chain, could be another reason for its discouraging box office performance.

The film has already run into trouble with the Rajput community of Rajasthan, which felt Gowariker has distorted facts. Rajput organisations said Gowariker has presented Jodhabai as Akbar’s wife, which is they claimed was factually incorrect.

According to them, Jodhabai was not the daughter of Raja Bharmal of Amber as shown in the film. The princess was the daughter of Motaraja Udai Singh of Marwar and she was married to Akbar’s son Salim alias Jehangir. And Mughal king Shahjahan was her son, they say.

However, Maharani Padmini, the direct descendant of Jodha Bai, not only attended the music release function of the film held here, also showered praises on Gowariker for keeping historical facts intact and doing justice in portraying the relationship between Akbar and Jodha Bai.

Gowariker is also said to have consulted several eminent historians for the film.

If the first day’s collections are any indication, the movie will find it difficult to set the cash registers ringing in the coming days. Mehra also felt that barring grandeur, the film has very little to offer to the audiences by way of entertainment.

Some also complained that the movie was a bit long - 200 minutes - especially for youngsters and for what is essentially history retold.

TARAN ADARSH BOX OFFICE REPORT

www.indiafm.com


February 14, 2008 - 08:44 IST
The cold wave coupled with the ongoing cricket matches is taking a toll on film business. The occupancy at single screens/movieplexes has fallen to a new low, with films running to almost empty halls during evening and night shows. But you can't blame the weather conditions or any sport only for making a dent in business. Most movies don't have the stamina to stand on their feet beyond the opening weekend.Last week's SUPER STAR was a good idea gone wrong. Despite its actor [Kunal Khemu] and director [Rohit Jugraj] putting their best efforts and the producers [Shree Ashtavinayak Cinevision] going out of their way to promote the film, SUPER STAR lacked the meat to sustain audience interest. Clearly, the writing was the culprit here. There have been instances of films starting slow, but gathering speed gradually, but the public response to SUPER STAR sent out negative signals on Day 1 itself. No wonder, the film fell on Day 2 [ideally, it should've been on an upswing], while Day 3 was at par with Day 1. The one person who'd be badly hit by its non-performance is Kunal Khemu. Carrying a heavy title like SUPER STAR on your shoulders is no joke. To top it all, it's a solo hero film. But it's not the end of the world for Kunal or Jugraj. These are minor aberrations!

Box office analysis - Joginder Tuteja, IndiaGlitz [Saturday, February 02, 2008]

Box office analysis-Joginder Tuteja, IndiaGlitz [Saturday, February 02, 2008]

First weekend performance of latest release

Box office 2008 is certainly throwing up surprises. After a disappointing run of HALLA BOL, even SUNDAY opened to a below par response. While a 70%-80% seemed to be very much on the cards, close to 50% opening came as a bit of surprise. Not that all is lost though for SUNDAY (Rohit Shetty’s films are known for opening around average mark and becoming money spinners as days progress - as witnessed in ZAMEEN and GOLMAAL) but a speedy revival is an absolute must.

What didn’t work for the film? It’s lukewarm climax. For any thriller to work, it’s culmination is of utmost importance, howsoever solid the 2 hour built up may have been. In case of SUNDAY, it carried on quite well up to the last reel but the climax turned out to be an anticlimax. Still, if one looks at the film in entirety, it’s narrative is far more original and novel than one has witnessed in many a comic thrillers. Arshad Warsi’s comedy is the strength of the film along with Irrfan Khan’s antics and some jaw dropping stunts. Music works extremely well for the film and one expects all these factors to work together and help the film sail through past the safety mark.

Last week’s movies

BOMBAY TO BANGKOK has flopped. With mere 1.5 crores coming in the first week, it is a battle which the film has lost even before it could announce it’s arrival in the field. This Nagesh Kukunoor film didn’t arouse curiosity at all to make people excited. And those who did enter the theaters didn’t have positive things to say about this comedy which was quite ‘feeka’ in appeal. Result was that after 50 lakhs from Mumbai (hence accounting for more than 30% of the total revenue) and 20 lakhs from Delhi, the film is already getting ready for a DVD release.

Has this seriously impacted Shreyas Talpade’s sole hero dreams? Too early to say that, considering he was one of the best things to have happened in last year’s release AGGAR. Given a good script and a solid role, he can make a mark.

From the past

HALLA BOL is now breathing it’s last. One expected some revival with BOMBAY TO BANGKOK being a weak competition in the second week of this Rajkumar Santoshi film but that didn’t quite happen after a below average first week. Suffering a 70% fall and only 3.5 crores more, HALLA BOL now stands at 15 crores with little chances of any further money inflow. With Mumbai getting 40 lakhs and Delhi another 35 lakhs, the film has seen a sharp drop everywhere. Could Sunny Deol in Pankaj Kapoor’s role have salvaged the film? Probably yes, but for that a Santoshi-Deol reconcilation has to happen first!

MY NAME IS ANTHONY GONSALVES is 2008’s first official disaster. The film was nowhere in the picture in the second week, as can be seen from an astonishing 97% fall. Frankly, even the worst of the detractors wouldn’t have bargained for such sorry state of this film which has folded up at 65 lakhs. While certain C grade films make this kind of money, an E Niwas film backed by entities like Sahara and Red Chillies experiencing such a terrible fate is nothing short of heartbreaking. So what went wrong? It’s promotion which never told the audience about what they were getting into. Result? No one bothered to check that this out themselves at the cost of their hard earned money.

TAARE ZAMEEN PAR is the most stunning box office story that I have witnessed in my 8 years of film journalism career. IF VIVAAH shook me up a year ago, TAARE ZAMEEN PAR has made me jump out of my seat week after week. Maintaining exceedingly well even in it’s fifth week with yet another <25%>

WELCOME isn’t letting it go either. In spite of a huge fortnight, the film hasn’t taken a fall that the biggest of blockbusters take after an early moolah inflow and has dropped by only 40%. With the 5th week bringing in 2.5 crores, the film now stands at 73 crores plus. All set to touch the 75 crores mark, the film has now done more business than the sum total of all Anees Bazmee directed films combined together.

In the future

This week RAMA RAMA KYA HAI DRAMAAA opens after lingering around for close to 3 months. Yet another comedy of the month, this Rajpal Yadav & Neha Dhupia starrer doesn’t have much going in it’s favor. Dated look and tacky production values mean that the producers would have to show some faith in ‘Lord Rama’ to do any decent business.

JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – Sunday has decent at best opening week…[02.02.2008]

New Releases

Sunday

Sunday’s opening week looks to be steady overall but at the lower end. The comedy genre as a whole has had a lot of success recently but mainly when a leading star is part of the package; Partner, Welcome & Heyy Babby being such examples. Presence without a major star almost certainly means a far lesser initial, much like Dhamaal or Malawaal Weekly experienced.

The opening for Sunday as most reports confirmed was fairly poor, especially considering it had been 5 weeks since the release of Welcome/TZP and not one film since had opened strong. There were some reports of a rise in collections but overall it appears Sunday is not running houseful, but half full. The second week for such a scenario is crucial.

I’ve compared the opening week to Dhamaal, which is the best model to compare to. Also I have compared it to Jab We Met, Naqaab & Cash offline.

Week 1 Sunday vs Week 1 Dhamaal
Mumbai -10% means that Sunday is 10% LESS than Dhamaal in Week 1

Mumbai -10%
Ahmedabad -44%
Himmatnagar -80%
Baroda 0%
Pune 7%
Goa 0%
Nasik 0%
Delhi 2%
Noida -26%
Kaushambi 26%
Gurgaon -70%
Agra -86%
Aligarh -103%
Faridabad -132%
Guwahati -3%
Nagpur 3%
Raipur 15%
Indore -31%
Kolkatta 3%
Darjeeling -136%
Jaipur -15%
Kota -15%
Ujjain -56%
Bangalore 28%
Chennai -57%

Sunday leads in 10 centres
Dhamaal leads in 15 centres

The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Sunday = 5.61Cr
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Dhamaal = 6.31Cr

This means that Sunday is 89% of Dhamaal’s total (5.61/6.31 = 89%)

Using my own Dhamaal Week 1 total of 12.25Cr (midpoint), the Sunday Week 1 = 89% * (12.25) = 10.9Cr

Note I will wait for a complete Mumbai figure since 6 centres are still to be reported. Compared with JWM I got 10.6Cr for Sunday’s opening, likewise vs. Naqaab it was 10.9Cr and vs. Cash it was 11.3Cr. Overall it is in the range of 10.5Cr – 11.5Cr (may increase a touch with better Mumbai number)

Sunday 1 Week Total = 10.5-11.5Cr(Week 1)

Verdict – Below par opening

Overall it is a below the mark opening considering there has not been much opposition around except for the twin success of Welcome & TZP. If Sunday remains steady, a 20Cr total looks likely which would just about be a below average performer. It appears people are waiting for Jodha Akbar’s imminent release !

Past Releases

Halla Bol

In its 3rd week, Halla Bol recorded not more than 0.3Cr – 0.4Cr (some un-reported Mumbai centres yet again). Overall it is exiting the scene with a total around 11.6Cr – 12.3Cr, a very poor showing overall.

Halla Bol 3 Week Total = 8.5-9.0Cr(Week 1) + 2.8-2.9Cr(Week 2) + 0.3Cr – 0.4Cr(Week 3) = 11.6Cr – 12.3Cr

Taare Zameen Par

Somewhat unexpectedly, TZP had a fairly junky fall BUT still it is way below industry average, such is the standard it has set in weeks gone by.

TZP Week 5 vs TZP Week 6
43% Mumbai means TZP fell by 43% in Mumbai in Week 6

Mumbai 43%
Baroda -183%
Bharuch 7%
Pune 34%
Goa 28%
Delhi 42%
Noida 45%
Kaushambi -47%
Gurgaon 63%
Agra 37%
Bareilly 4%
Faridabad 73%
Lucknow -64%
Nagpur 64%
Raipur 35%
Indore 9%
Jaipur 45%
Kota 52%
Kolkatta 55%
Darjeeling 7%
Bangalore 9%
Chennai 16%

Trending
Week 2 drop = 18%
Week 3 drop = 27%
Week 4 drop = 26%
Week 5 drop = 23%
Week 6 drop = 45%
Mumbai & Delhi fell a little steeper then in previous weeks and this is the main reason why the overall fall is steeper. Of course Sunday too may have added some competition in the past week. In Chennai, Bangalore & Kolkata, TZP has had an impressive run throughout.

Gross

The TZP Week 1 total for the above centres = 8.56Cr (ignoring Chennai, Bangalore, Jaipur, Kausambhi, Indore)
The TZP Week 6 total for the above centres = 1.60Cr (ignoring Chennai, Bangalore, Jaipur, Kausambhi, Indore)

This means that TZP’s Week 6 total is 19% of TZP’s Week 1 total (1.60/8.56 = 19%)

Using my own TZP Week 1 Total of 16.0-16.5Cr, the TZP Week 6 Total = 19% * (16.0-16.5) = 3.0-3.1Cr

TZP 6 Week Total = 16.0-16.5Cr(Week 1) + 13.1-13.5Cr(Week 2) + 9.5-9.8Cr(Week 3) + 7.0-7.3Cr(Week 4) + 5.4-5.6Cr(Week 5) + 3.0-3.1Cr(Week 6) = 53.9Cr – 55.6Cr

Verdict – Blockbuster

Despite a steeper fall, TZP is still on course to crack 60Cr and should be close before Jodha Akbar releases. Its business in big cities is the most impressive and if Sunday doesn’t hold up one would expect TZP to benefit the most.

Welcome

In it’s 6th week, Welcome fell significantly but the job is done. It’s recorded between 0.6Cr – 0.7Cr (I’ll wait for a better Mumbai number) and its overall total stands at an incredible 64.4Cr – 68.6Cr. Overall it is a SuperDuperHit.

Welcome 6 Week Total = 31.0-33.0Cr(Week 1) + 18.9-20.0Cr(Week 2) + 8.4-8.9Cr(Week 3) + 3.6-3.9Cr(Week 4) + 2.0-2.1Cr(Week 5) + 0.6-0.7Cr(Week 6) = 64.4 - 68.6Cr

Summary of the Week
Sunday had a relatively poor opening but overall had a below average week. TZP continues to sparkle even though it had a steeper fall then usual. Welcome & Halla Bol are coming to the end of their runs.

December 2007
Welcome : 64.4 - 68.6Cr (SuperDuperHit)
Taare Zameen Par : 53.9Cr – 55.6Cr (Blockbuster)

January 2008
Halla Bol : 11.6 – 12.3Cr (Flop)
Sunday : 10.5 – 11.5Cr (Below Average opening)

2007 – Significant Grosses (note 10Cr+ means 10Cr-20Cr bracket)

70Cr +
Om Shanti Om

60Cr+
Chak De! India, Welcome

50Cr+
Partner, Taare Zameen Par

40Cr+
Guru, Heyy Babby, Bhool Bhulaiyaa

30Cr+
Namastey London, Tara Rum Pum, Shootout At Lokhandwala, Jab We Met

20Cr+
Dhamaal

10Cr+
Honeymoon Travels Pvt Ltd, Bheja Fry, Life in a Metro, Cheeni Kum

Box Office 2008 - Has the bubble burst?

http://www.indiafm.com/features/2008/02/01/3531/index.html

By Joginder Tuteja, February 1, 2008 - 09:07 IST

2007 was a great year for Bollywood as it saw maximum blockbusters and super hits coming together in a shot span of time, especially towards the latter part of the year. Om Shanti Om and Welcome were the biggest money-spinners and Taare Zameen Par is still counting 'moolah' after being a big winner at the Box Office. Amongst the actors, Akshay Kumar had Heyy Babyy, Bhool Bhulaiyaa, and Namastey London as three more biggies in his kitty while Shahrukh Khan had all the right reasons to celebrate with Chak De India. Films like Partner, Guru, Jab We Met, Shoot Out At Lokhandwala, Life In A Metro, Dhamaal, Ta Ra Rum Pum, Honeymoon Travels Pvt. Ltd, Traffic Signal and last but not the least Bheja Fry kept the investors happy as well and it seemed that Bollywood had finally woken up to being much more consistent and prolific in ascertaining the way box office behaves. Factors like intelligent market placements, PR strategy, and identification of target audience, focused promotion and the entire gamut of bringing in audience for an all important first weekend were hailed for a renewed box office behavior. Unfortunately, 2008 is telling an altogether different story with a pale of gloom shadowing the current state of affairs. First month of the year is through and Bollywood is yet to see a bonafide Box Office success. Even after four notable film releases, Halla Bol, My Name Is Anthony Gonsalves, Bombay To Bangkok and Sunday, there are not many signs of a positive movement when it comes to Box Office fortunes. While My Name Is Anthony Gonsalves and Bombay To Bangkok have been out rightly rejected and have turned out to be massive failures with a mere two week run, Halla Bol is a flop too. The only silver lining for this Rajkumar Santoshi and Ajay Devgan collaboration is good reviews. Also, the audience feedback from numerous quarters has brought certain respectability to the state of affairs. However, even though the film did give it a fight to stay on at the theaters, distributors and exhibitors couldn't sustain the film for long. On the other hand Sunday has its hopes strongly lying on the word of the mouth. Taking a rather disheartening opening, the film is going all out to make for a safe passage before Jodhaa Akbar strikes on 15th February. Though the comedy portions of this film starring Ajay Devgan, Arshad Warsi, Irrfan Khan and Ayesha Takia have been loved, it is the lukewarm climax, a la 36 China Town which has come in for some scrutiny. However director Rohit Shetty is positive as he says, Sunday is one of those safe films. The film wasn't meant to be a blockbuster; still I am sure that the 'masala' element will pull it through past the safety park as audience feedback has been good. As the first week has come to an end, Rohit's eyes would be set on an all crucial second week now. With extremely low inflow of movies during next few weeks, all eyes are now set on Jodhaa Akbar (15th February) and Race (21st March), which are the only two notable films slated for release before first quarter of 2008 comes to an end. Mithya, Superstar and Black & White are the other films in the pipeline too but none of them are expected to be heavy contributors towards making the Bollywood balance sheet turn green soon. Now compare this situation with 2007 when around a dozen notable films released between January and March. Films like Guru, Salaam-E- Ishq, Parzania, Traffic Signal, Black Friday, Eklavya - The Royal Guard, Water, Hat Trick, Just Married, Namastey London and The Namesake came in quick succession and though the success ratio was low here as well, at least there were some hits at the least. Nevertheless, an overall lukewarm January has succeeded in ringing the alarm bells already. There are whispers in the industry circles if the bubble has already burst and whether Bollywood would be able to revive itself from the initial setback. Madhur Bhandarkar is optimistic though as he says, Jodhaa Akbar is big and it would be too quick to dismiss 2008 based on a few early setbacks. Vishal Dadlani agrees as he says positively, “The least Jodhaa Akbar would do is take a solid initial. Come on man, we are talking about Ashutosh Gowarikar, Hrithik Roshan and Aishwarya Rai here. I am sure cash registers would start ringing again." Pritam who has composed the music of Race is putting his bets on this Abbas Mustan film. He says, "I have read the script, it is mind blowing. If the director duo has managed to put even 50% of what is written on paper, we have a winner in hands." Sure, we will see. Let the 'race' begin!

Overseas 2007-Classifications

Boxofficeindia.Com Trade Network

2007 emerged as a fairly good year in the overseas market. In terms of business the year saw the biggest turnover ever after 2006 but profits were not as good as films were seeing wider releases than ever before so therefore more costly.

Om Shanti Om was the stand out film as it became a blockbuster with 36 crore business and the third biggest grosser ever in the overseas market. The hit films were Salaam-E-Ishq, Welcome, Namastey London, Guru, Partner, Heyy Babyy, Bhool Bhulaiyaa, Cheeni Kum and Jab We Met.


Overseas 2007 Film Gross (Ind Rs) Verdict


Om Shanti Om 36,00,00,000 Blockbuster

Salaam-E-Ishq 22,25,00,000 Hit

Welcome 19,25,00,000 Hit

Namstey Londom 18,50,00,000 Hit

Guru 18 ,00,00,000 Hit

Partner 17,25,00,000 Hit

Heyy Babyy 17,25,00,000 Hit

Ta Ra Rum Pum 15,50,00,000 Semi Hit

Bhool Bhulaiyaa 15,00,00,000 Hit

Laaga Chunari Mein Daag 13,50,00,000 Above Average

Jhoom Barabar Jhoom 13,00,00,000 Average

Eklavya 12,25,00,000 Above Average

Taare Zameen Par 11,75,00,000 Semi Hit

Chak De India 11,75,00,000 Above Average

Apne 9,50,00,000Semi Hit

Saawariya 8,75,00,000 Flop

Cheeni Kum 8,50,00,000 Hit

Aaja Nachley 8,00,00,000 Below Average

Jab We Met 8,00,00,000 Hit

Business Talk With Taran Adarsh [January 31, 2008]

http://www.indiafm.com/trade/business_talk/index.html


Domestic B.O.: From bad to worse!


Out of the frying pan, it's straight into the fire. That's the state of the industry currently. The dry run at the box-office continues non-stop, the latest 'casualty' being SUNDAY. Why are people shying away from theatres? Is it due to the cold wave? Or is it because they aren't excited about films? Whatever the reasons, the business has suddenly turned ice-cold. Post WELCOME and TAARE ZAMEEN PAR, the graph continues to slide downwards.What wrong with SUNDAY? It's a well-made, entertaining joyride. But the 30% - 40% opening was simply unexpected. A very prominent distributor/exhibitor feels [and rightly so!] that the movie-going segment that favors movieplexes today is the youth and Ajay Devgan's popularity has declined over the years in this segment. Partly because Ajay has been seen in similar kind of movies/roles [serious]. Ajay needs to experiment with romance and comedy -- something that Akshay realized a few years ago and changed lanes quickly. Often labeled a 'stunt hero' not too long back, Akshay is now considered a romantic hero who works big time in comedies. That, in turn, has resulted in his ratings soaring upwards, nationally and internationally. This is what I also conveyed to Rohit Shetty, director of SUNDAY, who also happens to be a close friend of Ajay's. SUNDAY picked up on Friday evening, shot upwards on Saturday [26th January was a National holiday], was on the plus side on Sunday, but Monday onwards, has registered a steep fall. Frankly, SUNDAY deserved a better fate and a better run. The only hope is that the coming days aren't really crowded with biggies. There's JODHAA AKBAR on 15th February. Till then, SUNDAY can catch up if the audience gets into the mood of visiting theatres. Will things improve? Let's wait-n-watch

IBOS Box Office: Sunday follows Halla Bol out, TZP & Welcome continue

Saturday, January 26, 2008 - BO Report

After the flopping of Halla Bol, Ajay Devgan returns to try Halla with ‘Sunday’ this weekend. But it appears that here too the audience isn’t buying.

Sunday the film opened to a 25% start on moderate screenings (more than Halla Bol but not much), improved to 40% on Saturday on account of it being the Republic Day. However much more was expected in terms of collections on this Holiday. Last year’s Salaam-E-Ishq which too had a poor showing atleast had a near 100% Republic Day collections. And ironically for the film titled Sunday, its Sunday bookings are looking bad, looking in the range of 25-30%. Weak.
Meanwhile, past December’s releases, Taare Zameen Par and Welcome are continuing on ranking the 2007 charts, with tax-exemption help in the case of Aamir Khan’s TZP. Akshay Kumar’s Welcome on the other hand has overtaken Om Shanti Om to emerge as 2007’s top grosser with collections of over 110 crores gross across the country.

Jodha Akbar, among the high profile early 2008 releases now, meanwhile has been reported to be sold to Reliance for 90 crores. However insiders say that the deal may not fall through as happened with the music, and UTV may have to bear it.

JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column from naachgaana,com [26th Jan 2008]

New Releases

Bombay to Bangkok
Bombay to Bangkok had a poor opening week by all counts and recorded not more than 2Cr. But not a completely terrible week considering Hanuman Returns and Showbiz made far less.

Past Releases

Halla Bol
It didn’t stand much of a chance after the appalling first week showing, so the second week numbers come as no surprise.
HB Week 1 vs HB Week 289% Mumbai means HB fell by 89% in Mumbai in Week 2
Mumbai 89%Ahmedabad 73%Himmatnagar 75%Gandhinagar 79%Baroda 80%Bharuch 74%Jamnagar 50%Bhavnagar 69%Pune 71%Goa 45%Nasik 71%Delhi 51%Noida 63%Kaushambi 62%Gurgaon 57%Lucknow 77%Aligarh 53%Agra 52%Faridabad 72%Moradabad 3%Dehradun 65%Nagpur 79%Raipur 64%Indore 87%Ujjain 62%Jaipur 44%Kota 77%Kolkatta 48%Guwahati 48%Darjeeling 80%Bangalore 58%Chennai 54%
TrendingWeek 2 drop = 61%Ignoring Mumbai, since the number is under-reported, Halla Bol fell hard across India by 50-80%. A few smaller centres faired better like Moradabad, Guwahati and Jamnager, but overall it’s a big underperformer.
Gross
The HB Week 1 total for the above centres = 2.36Cr (ignoring Mumbai)The HB Week 2 total for the above centres = 0.92Cr (ignoring Mumbai)
This means that HB’s Week 2 total is 39% of HB’s Week 1 total (0.92/2.36 = 39%)
Using my own HB Week 1 Total of 8.5-9.0Cr, the HB Week 1 Total = 39% * (8.5-9.0) = 3.3-3.5Cr
Halla Bol 2 Week Total = 8.5-9.0Cr(Week 1) + 3.3-3.5Cr(Week 2) = 11.8Cr – 12.5Cr
(I will wait for more concrete Mumbai number to make better estimate since it is the most important city number)

Verdict – Flop

Halla Bol is the first major casualty of the year. The film has failed at the box office and looks to be finishing at around 13-15Cr (depending on what Mumbai is this week).

Taare Zameen Par
TZP continues to cast its spell on the box office. It’s trending is remarkable, all the more so because it is relying heavily on the multiplexes.
TZP Week 4 vs TZP Week 518% Mumbai means TZP fell by 18% in Mumbai in Week 5
Mumbai 18%Baroda 76%Bharuch 55%Bhavnagar 48%Pune -9%Goa 31%Delhi 26%Noida 27%Kaushambi 77%Gurgaon 31%Aligarh 38%Agra 24%Dehradun 32%Bareilly 27%Faridabad 25%Lucknow 46%Nagpur -98%Raipur 17%Indore 71%Jaipur -29%Kota 58%Kolkatta -17%Darjeeling 53%Bangalore 30%Chennai 68%
TrendingWeek 2 drop = 18%Week 3 drop = 27%Week 4 drop = 26%Week 5 drop = 23%Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkatta, Bangalore are still doing bumper business. Mumbai especially is mind-boggling even in Week 1 recording 1.6Cr. The weekly falls to are remarkable. It’s sustained at a small fall every week. There seems to be prints circulated in smaller centres now, numbers have been provided for 10 centres that have not appeared before.
Gross
The TZP Week 1 total for the above centres = 8.55Cr (ignoring Chennai, Bangalore, Jaipur, Kausambhi, Baroda, Indore)The TZP Week 5 total for the above centres = 2.88Cr (ignoring Chennai, Bangalore, Jaipur, Kausambhi, Baroda, Indore)
This means that TZP’s Week 5 total is 34% of TZP’s Week 1 total (2.88/8.55 = 34%)
Using my own TZP Week 1 Total of 16.0-16.5Cr, the TZP Week 5 Total = 34% * (16.0-16.5) = 5.4-5.6Cr
TZP 5 Week Total = 16.0-16.5Cr(Week 1) + 13.1-13.5Cr(Week 2) + 9.5-9.8Cr(Week 3) + 7.0-7.3Cr(Week 4) + 5.4-5.6Cr(Week 5) = 51.0Cr – 52.5Cr
Verdict – Blockbuster

TZP is unquestionably one of the most remarkable box office successes of recent times along with RDB, LRM, Vivah and CDI. Its staying power in the multiplexes is strong and it can continue for at least 3 weeks to get to a total past 60Cr. And all this with the 2nd biggest grosser of the past year as competition from the start makes it a unique achievement.


Welcome

Welcome held steady this week, recorded solid collections.
Welcome Week 4 vs Welcome Week 548% Mumbai means Welcome fell by 48% in Mumbai in Week 5
Mumbai 48%Baroda 69%Bharuch 46%Pune 41%Solapur 39%Goa 24%Nasik 43%Delhi 29%Noida 57%Kaushambi 68%Gurgaon 66%Ghaziabad 27%Faridabad 55%Lucknow 11%Nagpur 48%Raipur 48%Bhilai 47%Amravati 18%Jabalpur 31%Akola 26%Indore 90%Sehore 49%Kolkatta 28%Darjeeling 66%Bangalore 87%Hyderabad 48%Aurangabad 31%Chennai 75%
TrendingWeek 2 drop = 41%Week 3 drop = 55%Week 4 drop = 56%Week 5 drop = 45%Delhi was super strong as to has been most of the Northern Belt throughout Welcome’s run. It’s held steady in most centres and follows a similar pattern to Partner & OSO in steadying at the latter end of its run.
Gross
The Welcome Week 1 total for the above centres = 18.29Cr (ignoring Chennai, Bangalore, Guwahati, Indore, Baroda)The Welcome Week 5 total for the above centres = 1.18Cr (ignoring Chennai, Bangalore, Guwahati, Indore, Baroda)
This means that Welcome’s Week 5 total is 6% of Welcome’s Week 1 total (1.18/18.29 = 6%)
Using my own Welcome Week 1 Total of 31.0-33.0Cr, the Welcome Week 5 Total = 6% * (31.0-33.0) = 2.0-2.1Cr
Welcome 5 Week Total = 31.0-33.0Cr(Week 1) + 18.9-20.0Cr(Week 2) + 8.4-8.9Cr(Week 3) + 3.6-3.9Cr(Week 4) + 2.0-2.1Cr(Week 5) = 63.8 - 67.9Cr
Verdict – SuperDuperHit
Unquestionably one of the biggest hits of last year, Welcome is still quite steady and may still reach 70Cr. Welcome & TZP complete a great hare and tortoise story.
Summary of the WeekThe new release Bombay to Bangkok opened poorly. Halla Bol failed to recover and is the first major flop of 2008. TZP continues its splendid box office run & Welcome remains steady at the lower end.

December 2007Welcome : 63.8 - 67.9Cr (SuperDuperHit)Taare Zameen Par : 51.0Cr – 52.5Cr (Blockbuster)

January 2008Halla Bol : 11.8 – 12.5Cr (Flop)

2007 – Significant Grosses (note 10Cr+ means 10Cr-20Cr bracket)
70Cr + Om Shanti Om
60Cr+Chak De! India, Welcome (subject to change)
50Cr+Partner, Taare Zameen Par
40Cr+Guru, Heyy Babby, Bhool Bhulaiyaa
30Cr+Namastey London, Tara Rum Pum, Shootout At Lokhandwala, Jab We Met
20Cr+Dhamaal
10Cr+ Honeymoon Travels Pvt Ltd, Bheja Fry, Life in a Metro, Cheeni Kum