JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column from naachgaana,com [26th Jan 2008]

New Releases

Bombay to Bangkok
Bombay to Bangkok had a poor opening week by all counts and recorded not more than 2Cr. But not a completely terrible week considering Hanuman Returns and Showbiz made far less.

Past Releases

Halla Bol
It didn’t stand much of a chance after the appalling first week showing, so the second week numbers come as no surprise.
HB Week 1 vs HB Week 289% Mumbai means HB fell by 89% in Mumbai in Week 2
Mumbai 89%Ahmedabad 73%Himmatnagar 75%Gandhinagar 79%Baroda 80%Bharuch 74%Jamnagar 50%Bhavnagar 69%Pune 71%Goa 45%Nasik 71%Delhi 51%Noida 63%Kaushambi 62%Gurgaon 57%Lucknow 77%Aligarh 53%Agra 52%Faridabad 72%Moradabad 3%Dehradun 65%Nagpur 79%Raipur 64%Indore 87%Ujjain 62%Jaipur 44%Kota 77%Kolkatta 48%Guwahati 48%Darjeeling 80%Bangalore 58%Chennai 54%
TrendingWeek 2 drop = 61%Ignoring Mumbai, since the number is under-reported, Halla Bol fell hard across India by 50-80%. A few smaller centres faired better like Moradabad, Guwahati and Jamnager, but overall it’s a big underperformer.
Gross
The HB Week 1 total for the above centres = 2.36Cr (ignoring Mumbai)The HB Week 2 total for the above centres = 0.92Cr (ignoring Mumbai)
This means that HB’s Week 2 total is 39% of HB’s Week 1 total (0.92/2.36 = 39%)
Using my own HB Week 1 Total of 8.5-9.0Cr, the HB Week 1 Total = 39% * (8.5-9.0) = 3.3-3.5Cr
Halla Bol 2 Week Total = 8.5-9.0Cr(Week 1) + 3.3-3.5Cr(Week 2) = 11.8Cr – 12.5Cr
(I will wait for more concrete Mumbai number to make better estimate since it is the most important city number)

Verdict – Flop

Halla Bol is the first major casualty of the year. The film has failed at the box office and looks to be finishing at around 13-15Cr (depending on what Mumbai is this week).

Taare Zameen Par
TZP continues to cast its spell on the box office. It’s trending is remarkable, all the more so because it is relying heavily on the multiplexes.
TZP Week 4 vs TZP Week 518% Mumbai means TZP fell by 18% in Mumbai in Week 5
Mumbai 18%Baroda 76%Bharuch 55%Bhavnagar 48%Pune -9%Goa 31%Delhi 26%Noida 27%Kaushambi 77%Gurgaon 31%Aligarh 38%Agra 24%Dehradun 32%Bareilly 27%Faridabad 25%Lucknow 46%Nagpur -98%Raipur 17%Indore 71%Jaipur -29%Kota 58%Kolkatta -17%Darjeeling 53%Bangalore 30%Chennai 68%
TrendingWeek 2 drop = 18%Week 3 drop = 27%Week 4 drop = 26%Week 5 drop = 23%Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkatta, Bangalore are still doing bumper business. Mumbai especially is mind-boggling even in Week 1 recording 1.6Cr. The weekly falls to are remarkable. It’s sustained at a small fall every week. There seems to be prints circulated in smaller centres now, numbers have been provided for 10 centres that have not appeared before.
Gross
The TZP Week 1 total for the above centres = 8.55Cr (ignoring Chennai, Bangalore, Jaipur, Kausambhi, Baroda, Indore)The TZP Week 5 total for the above centres = 2.88Cr (ignoring Chennai, Bangalore, Jaipur, Kausambhi, Baroda, Indore)
This means that TZP’s Week 5 total is 34% of TZP’s Week 1 total (2.88/8.55 = 34%)
Using my own TZP Week 1 Total of 16.0-16.5Cr, the TZP Week 5 Total = 34% * (16.0-16.5) = 5.4-5.6Cr
TZP 5 Week Total = 16.0-16.5Cr(Week 1) + 13.1-13.5Cr(Week 2) + 9.5-9.8Cr(Week 3) + 7.0-7.3Cr(Week 4) + 5.4-5.6Cr(Week 5) = 51.0Cr – 52.5Cr
Verdict – Blockbuster

TZP is unquestionably one of the most remarkable box office successes of recent times along with RDB, LRM, Vivah and CDI. Its staying power in the multiplexes is strong and it can continue for at least 3 weeks to get to a total past 60Cr. And all this with the 2nd biggest grosser of the past year as competition from the start makes it a unique achievement.


Welcome

Welcome held steady this week, recorded solid collections.
Welcome Week 4 vs Welcome Week 548% Mumbai means Welcome fell by 48% in Mumbai in Week 5
Mumbai 48%Baroda 69%Bharuch 46%Pune 41%Solapur 39%Goa 24%Nasik 43%Delhi 29%Noida 57%Kaushambi 68%Gurgaon 66%Ghaziabad 27%Faridabad 55%Lucknow 11%Nagpur 48%Raipur 48%Bhilai 47%Amravati 18%Jabalpur 31%Akola 26%Indore 90%Sehore 49%Kolkatta 28%Darjeeling 66%Bangalore 87%Hyderabad 48%Aurangabad 31%Chennai 75%
TrendingWeek 2 drop = 41%Week 3 drop = 55%Week 4 drop = 56%Week 5 drop = 45%Delhi was super strong as to has been most of the Northern Belt throughout Welcome’s run. It’s held steady in most centres and follows a similar pattern to Partner & OSO in steadying at the latter end of its run.
Gross
The Welcome Week 1 total for the above centres = 18.29Cr (ignoring Chennai, Bangalore, Guwahati, Indore, Baroda)The Welcome Week 5 total for the above centres = 1.18Cr (ignoring Chennai, Bangalore, Guwahati, Indore, Baroda)
This means that Welcome’s Week 5 total is 6% of Welcome’s Week 1 total (1.18/18.29 = 6%)
Using my own Welcome Week 1 Total of 31.0-33.0Cr, the Welcome Week 5 Total = 6% * (31.0-33.0) = 2.0-2.1Cr
Welcome 5 Week Total = 31.0-33.0Cr(Week 1) + 18.9-20.0Cr(Week 2) + 8.4-8.9Cr(Week 3) + 3.6-3.9Cr(Week 4) + 2.0-2.1Cr(Week 5) = 63.8 - 67.9Cr
Verdict – SuperDuperHit
Unquestionably one of the biggest hits of last year, Welcome is still quite steady and may still reach 70Cr. Welcome & TZP complete a great hare and tortoise story.
Summary of the WeekThe new release Bombay to Bangkok opened poorly. Halla Bol failed to recover and is the first major flop of 2008. TZP continues its splendid box office run & Welcome remains steady at the lower end.

December 2007Welcome : 63.8 - 67.9Cr (SuperDuperHit)Taare Zameen Par : 51.0Cr – 52.5Cr (Blockbuster)

January 2008Halla Bol : 11.8 – 12.5Cr (Flop)

2007 – Significant Grosses (note 10Cr+ means 10Cr-20Cr bracket)
70Cr + Om Shanti Om
60Cr+Chak De! India, Welcome (subject to change)
50Cr+Partner, Taare Zameen Par
40Cr+Guru, Heyy Babby, Bhool Bhulaiyaa
30Cr+Namastey London, Tara Rum Pum, Shootout At Lokhandwala, Jab We Met
20Cr+Dhamaal
10Cr+ Honeymoon Travels Pvt Ltd, Bheja Fry, Life in a Metro, Cheeni Kum